FAQ: What happens next for Hall-of-Fame’s 27 semifinalists?


(Brian Urlacher photo courtesy of Wikimedia Commons)

Within 24 hours of announcing the 27 semi-final candidates for the Class of 2018, the Pro Football Hall of Fame sent its 48 selectors ballots to cut the list to 15 finalists — with results announced in early January. That’s not much time. So anyone with questions is asked to raise their hands now, and, yes, there should be plenty of them. Such as …

Is there a dead-bolt cinch here or something close to it?

A: Yes. Ray Lewis. The former Baltimore Ravens’ linebacker is the most electable candidate. He checked all the boxes — 13 Pro Bowls, 10 All-Pro teams, first-team all-decade, two-time Defensive Player of the Year, Super Bowl champion, Super Bowl MVP and one of the few players ever to play a Pro Bowl in three different decades (1990s, 2000s, 2010s). Lewis is considered one of the greatest and most dominating middle linebackers in the history of the game — one reason the Ravens have a statue of him outside their stadium. If Junior Seau can be enshrined on his first try — which he was, in 2015 — there’s no reason Lewis can’t … or won’t. This is as close to a sure thing as it gets.

What impact will Ray Lewis have on Brian Urlacher?

A: Good question. With only five modern-era spots available, it’s uncommon — though not rare — that selectors choose two Hall-of-Famers from the same position in the same year. Yeah, I know, two running backs were chosen this summer. But the last time it happened before then was 2006 when Warren Moon and Troy Aikman were elected, one year after Steve Young and Dan Marino were inducted. Follow the bread crumbs, people. All four were quarterbacks. Lewis and Urlacher were not. They were middle linebackers, and they’re almost interchangeable. I said … almost. Urlacher was an eight-time Pro Bowler, five-time All-Pro, all-decade choice and Defensive Player of the Year. What he wasn’t was a Super Bowl champion. Nevertheless, he has the qualifications to make it as a first-ballot choice … except … except that Lewis is in line ahead of him. And, prior to this summer, the last time a position other than quarterback had two modern-era choices elected in the same year was 1983 when wide receivers Bobby Mitchell and Paul Warfield went in. That tells you something. It tells you Urlacher could have trouble.

What impact will Randy Moss have on Terrell Owens?

A: Uncertain. It could be considerable … though not so much in the voting as in the debate. Moss and Owens have similar backgrounds in that clubs gave up on them, with both traded, released and/or suspended. Each is among the NFL’s career receiving leaders, but each has his share of detractors — with Hall-of-Fame GM Bill Polian going so far as to say he wouldn’t elect either to Canton. OK, so that’s not going to happen. In fact, both will be finalists. But then the intrigue begins. Moss may jump the queue of Owens, Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt simply because he was first-team all-decade.  Holt and Owens were second-teamers. But that doesn’t mean Moss is a first-ballot slam dunk. Expect the debate to be considerable and long … on both candidates.

With four safeties as semifinalists what are the odds that one is elected?

A: Good. Very, very good. The Hall this summer inducted former safety Kenny Easley, and that was a huge step for the position. It marked the first time since Paul Krause in 1998 that a safety was elected and the first time someone who played later than Hall-of-Fame safety Ken Houston was chosen. Houston retired after the 1980 season. Easley retired in 1988. OK, so it wasn’t that much later, but the point is: Voters proved they’re not blind to the position. In fact, they made two safeties — Brian Dawkins and John Lynch– top 10 choices this year, with Dawkins getting there in his first year of eligibility and Lynch reaching the upper tier for the second straight year. One of them will be elected in February, with Dawkins the early favorite.

With two running backs enshrined this year, who’s next to move forward?

A: The likely candidate is Edgerrin James. He has the resume — four All-Pro selections, four Pro Bowls, two-time rushing champion and all-decade choice — but he disappeared after making it as a finalist in 2016. I don’t know what that was about, but expect him back. The sentimental choice might be Roger Craig, mostly because this is his last shot as a modern-era finalist. But his case was discussed in 2010, and he didn’t make the cut to 10. Color him a longshot … with the emphasis on long.

What are the chances one of the two coaches makes it to the finals?

A: Fair to good. Don Coryell made it the past three years. Jimmy Johnson made it in 2015. But neither will reach the final five … not this year, at least, and for two reasons: 1) There are too many qualified players, and 2) Coryell is the only one to reach the final 10, and that was in 2016 … which means his candidacy is losing strength. Nevertheless, voters keep bringing him back, so he’s the more likely choice.

What are the odds that Joe Jacoby makes it?

A: Good, if you’re talking about the Final 15. He’s been there the past two years. But his Hall-of-Fame candidacy is on life support after what happened earlier this year. Where he was a Top-10 finalist in 2016, he failed to make the cut from 15 to 10 one year later. So momentum he does not have. This is Jacoby’s last turn as a modern-era finalist, so it’s now or never … and the arrow is pointing more toward never, with Jacoby sent to the senior pool if/when he’s not elected this time around.

Which darkhorse could sneak into the Final 15?

A: It could be cornerback Everson Walls, in his first try as a semifinalist … but in his last try as a modern-era candidate. Voters may decide they must hear his Hall-of-Fame case before he disappears into the abyss … otherwise known as the senior pool. But there’s stiff competition at cornerback, with Ty Law and Ronde Barber. That will hurt his chances. It could be someone like a Leslie O’Neal, too. This is his first time as a semifinalist, and that makes him a longshot. But remember: Voters love edge rushers, electing at least one in nine of the past 10 years, and there are only two here: O’Neal and Simeon Rice. And that’s significant if one of them gets through. Because Jason Taylor was the only edge rusher among the 2017 finalists, and selectors made him a first-ballot choice.

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9 Comments

  1. Rasputin
    November 23, 2017
    Reply

    I always viewed both Brian Urlacher and Ray Lewis as first ballot. I’d have no problem putting the two LBs in this time as this is a rare case of synced up timing.

    • November 23, 2017
      Reply

      I’d have no problem, either. But there are some guys who have been waiting a long time … and if there’s something close I respect the queue.

  2. bachslunch
    November 23, 2017
    Reply

    Great read and perceptive analysis. Agreed with most all of it.

    My only dissenting thought: a likely surprise nominee might be Roger Craig. Like Everson Walls, he’s also in his final eligible season — but unlike Walls, he’s on an all decade team. The voters really seem to like all decade team members, and it might be the difference maker.

    • November 23, 2017
      Reply

      Possible, but there’s been such an indifference to him lately that I don’t see it. Hasn’t made the finals since 2010, and voters may think he’s had his chance … let’s try someone who hasn’t.

  3. 1976 Pitt Panthers
    November 23, 2017
    Reply

    Ray Lewis was a legendary linebacker, and a HOF lock, but is lucky his involvement in a murder case happened in the early 2000s. This was before the internet coverage of the NFL heated up, and subsequent incidents of much lesser player misconduct were treated with wall to wall coverage.

    As a refresher, Lewis and two other men were indicted on murder and aggravated-assault charges 11 days after the crime. Later, in exchange for his testimony, Lewis plead guilty to a misdemeanor charge of obstruction of justice in the murder case. Lewis later settled with the families of the two men killed, and the white suit he wore the night of the crimes has never been recovered.

  4. Justin
    November 24, 2017
    Reply

    Urlacher has very little separating him from Zach Thomas. According to pro football reference, they are each other’s most similar players. Urlacher was a 8 time pro bowler and 4 time all pro. Meanwhile, Thomas went to 7 pro bowls but was a 5 time all pro. Yes, Urlacher made an all decade team, but that seems to have more to do with him playing in Chicago (the home of middle linebackers). In short, there is very, very little separating the two players, but one is being talked about as a first ballot HOFer while the other has been waiting four years to even mak the semi finalists list. That just doesn’t make sense to me.

    • bachslunch
      November 25, 2017
      Reply

      Agreed. Just one correction — Zach Thomas made the 00s all decade team, as did Urlacher.

  5. Marilyn
    November 28, 2017
    Reply

    Chuck Howley and Drew Pearson, need to start having discussions for the HOF.

    Howley, the only player, named MVP for Super Bowl
    Pearson, on the All Decade Teams of the 70’s, not in the Hall.
    Without Pearson, there would be no Roger Staubach or Hail Mary

    • November 28, 2017
      Reply

      Don’t disagree at all. Not sure how Pearson was forgotten. But need to get him out from the abyss that is the senior pool.

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